{"id":4730,"date":"2023-03-27T05:09:51","date_gmt":"2023-03-27T03:09:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jphres.org\/?p=4730"},"modified":"2023-04-02T14:18:23","modified_gmt":"2023-04-02T12:18:23","slug":"the-lag-between-daily-reported-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-and-its-relationship-to-age","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/","title":{"rendered":"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"item doi\"><span class=\"value\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/jphr.2021.2049\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/jphr.2021.2049<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<ul class=\"item authors\">\n<li><span class=\"name\"><strong>Raymond Jin<\/strong><br \/>\n<span class=\"affiliation\">Farragut High School, Knoxville, TN, United States.<\/span><span class=\"orcid\"><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6580-7743\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6580-7743<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"item abstract\">\n<h3 class=\"label\">ABSTRACT<\/h3>\n<p><em>Background<\/em>: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has infected millions and killed tens of thousands of people. Public health measures put in place by governments are essential to the success of controlling this disease. However, governments may not feel as incentivized to implement these measures when deaths are not rising along with cases. However, it is known that a delay exists between the time of infection and the time of death. This study attempted to find how long that lag is and how the age of people infected may affect that lag.<br \/>\n<em>Design and Methods<\/em>: A descriptive and correlational study was carried out to investigate the length of the lag and the relationship between lag and age.<\/p>\n<p><em>Results<\/em>: The average lag between daily Covid-19 cases and deaths was 8.053 days with a standard deviation of 4.116 days for nineteen regions. After excluding data from three more regions due to unavailable age data, the regression yielded an equation of lag = 14.015 \u2013 0.153 (% cases above 60) with a p-value of 0.066. Because the p-value of 0.066 is lower than the 0.10 significance level, there is evidence that a relationship exists between the lag and the age of cases.<br \/>\n<em>Conclusions<\/em>: The results show that regions must remain vigilant when Covid-19 cases rapidly increase without similar increases in deaths since there exists a significant lag between the two. Additionally, a younger demographic of cases may lead to an increased lag, further pushing regions into a false sense of security that should be avoided.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"item addthis\">\n<div class=\"value\">\n<h3 class=\"label\">REFERENCES<\/h3>\n<div class=\"value\">\n<p>Archived: WHO Timeline &#8211; COVID-19 [Internet]. WHO. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/detail\/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19\">https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/detail\/27-04-2020-who-timeline&#8212;covid-19<\/a><\/p>\n<p>WHO | Novel Coronavirus \u2013 China [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0https:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/don\/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china\/en\/<\/p>\n<p>Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it [Internet]. Who.int. [cited 2020 Nov 30]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019\/technical-guidance\/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it\">https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019\/technical-guidance\/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it<\/a><\/p>\n<p>COVID-19 map &#8211; johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource Center [Internet]. Jhu.edu. [cited 2020 Jul 30]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html\">https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Roser M, Ritchie H, Ortiz-Ospina E, Hasell J. Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19). Our World in Data [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Nov 30]; Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/coronavirus\">https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/coronavirus<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Montanaro D. Some people \u201chave the sniffles\u201d: Trump downplays the coronavirus\u2019s severity. NPR [Internet]. 2020 Jul 19 [cited 2020 Aug 3]; Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/07\/19\/892787298\/some-young-people-have-the-sniffles-trump-downplays-the-coronavirus-severity\">https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/07\/19\/892787298\/some-young-people-have-the-sniffles-trump-downplays-the-coronavirus-severity<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Klas ME. DeSantis downplays COVID surge, suggests it was more prevalent than state admitted [Internet]. Miamiherald.com. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0https:\/\/www.miamiherald.com\/news\/coronavirus\/article244025297.html<\/p>\n<p>Aylward B, Liang W, Dong X, et al. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Internet]. 2020 Feb. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf\">https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yang X, Yu Y, Xu J, et al. Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study. Lancet Respir Med 2020;8:475\u201381. DOI:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S2213-2600(20)30079-5\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S2213-2600(20)30079-5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Wilson N, Kvalsvig A, Barnard LT, Baker MG. Case-fatality risk estimates for COVID-19 calculated by using a lag time for fatality. Emerg Infect Dis 2020;26:1339\u2013441. DOI:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3201\/eid2606.200320\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3201\/eid2606.200320<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Testa CC, Krieger N, Chen JT, Hanage WP. Visualizing the lagged connection between COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States: An animation using per capita state-level data (January 22, 2020 \u2013 July 8, 2020). Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies Working Paper Series 2020;19:8. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cdn1.sph.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1266\/2020\/07\/HCPDS-WP_19_4_testa-et-al_Visualizing-Lagged-Connection-Between-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-in-US_final_07_10_with-cover.pdf\">https:\/\/cdn1.sph.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1266\/2020\/07\/HCPDS-WP_19_4_testa-et-al_Visualizing-Lagged-Connection-Between-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-in-US_final_07_10_with-cover.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Onder G, Rezza G, Brusaferro S. Case-fatality rate and characteristics of patients dying in relation to COVID-19 in Italy. JAMA 2020;323:1775\u20136. DOI:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jama.2020.4683\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jama.2020.4683<\/a><\/p>\n<p>CDC COVID-19 Response Team. Severe outcomes among patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) &#8211; United States, February 12-March 16, 2020. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:343\u20136. DOI:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15585\/mmwr.mm6912e2\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15585\/mmwr.mm6912e2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Provisional death counts for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Internet]. Cdc.gov. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/nvss\/vsrr\/covid19\/\">https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/nvss\/vsrr\/covid19\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>CDC. Test for Current Infection [Internet]. Cdc.gov. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/testing\/diagnostic-testing.html\">https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/testing\/diagnostic-testing.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Courage KH. Why more young people are getting sick in the latest Covid-19 outbreaks [Internet]. Vox. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2020\/7\/18\/21328358\/covid-19-cases-by-age-florida-arizona-texas-miami\">https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2020\/7\/18\/21328358\/covid-19-cases-by-age-florida-arizona-texas-miami<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Soucheray S. COVID-19 cases among US young adults spike [Internet]. Umn.edu. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cidrap.umn.edu\/news-perspective\/2020\/06\/covid-19-cases-among-us-young-adults-spike\">https:\/\/www.cidrap.umn.edu\/news-perspective\/2020\/06\/covid-19-cases-among-us-young-adults-spike<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Florida Division of Emergency Management. Coronavirus: Summary of Persons Being Monitored, Persons Under Investigation, and Cases [Internet]. 2020 Apr. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.floridadisaster.org\/globalassets\/covid19\/dailies\/covid-19-data---daily-report-2020-04-08-0954.pdf\">https:\/\/www.floridadisaster.org\/globalassets\/covid19\/dailies\/covid-19-data&#8212;daily-report-2020-04-08-0954.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Florida Division of Emergency Management. COVID-19: Summary of Persons Being Monitored, Persons Tested, and Cases [Internet]. 2020 Jul. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.floridadisaster.org\/globalassets\/covid19\/dailies\/state_reports_20200728.pdf\">https:\/\/www.floridadisaster.org\/globalassets\/covid19\/dailies\/state_reports_20200728.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Coronavirus second wave? Why cases increase [Internet]. Hopkinsmedicine.org. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hopkinsmedicine.org\/health\/conditions-and-diseases\/coronavirus\/first-and-second-waves-of-coronavirus\">https:\/\/www.hopkinsmedicine.org\/health\/conditions-and-diseases\/coronavirus\/first-and-second-waves-of-coronavirus<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Wise J. Covid-19: Risk of second wave is very real, say researchers. BMJ 2020;369:m2294. DOI:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmj.m2294\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmj.m2294<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/jphr.2021.2049 Raymond Jin Farragut High School, Knoxville, TN, United States. https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6580-7743 ABSTRACT Background: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has infected millions and killed tens of thousands of people. Public health measures put in place by governments are essential to the success of controlling this disease. However, governments may not feel as incentivized to implement these &#8230; <a title=\"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/\" aria-label=\"More on The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-4730","page","type-page","status-publish"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age - Journal of Public Health Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age - Journal of Public Health Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/jphr.2021.2049 Raymond Jin Farragut High School, Knoxville, TN, United States. https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6580-7743 ABSTRACT Background: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has infected millions and killed tens of thousands of people. Public health measures put in place by governments are essential to the success of controlling this disease. However, governments may not feel as incentivized to implement these ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Journal of Public Health Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-02T12:18:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/\",\"name\":\"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age - Journal of Public Health Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-27T03:09:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-02T12:18:23+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/\",\"name\":\"Journal of Public Health Research\",\"description\":\"The Journal of Public Health Research is an online Open Access, peer-reviewed journal in the field of public health science. The scope of the journal is to stimulate debate and spreading of knowledge in this area in order to improve public health.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Journal of Public Health Research\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Favicon-JPHRES.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Favicon-JPHRES.png\",\"width\":150,\"height\":114,\"caption\":\"Journal of Public Health Research\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.citefactor.org\/journal\/index\/5410\/journal-of-public-health-research#.ZD-hS-xBx3k\",\"https:\/\/www.scimagojr.com\/journalsearch.php?q=21100790524&amp;amp;tip=sid&amp;amp;clean=0\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age - Journal of Public Health Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age - Journal of Public Health Research","og_description":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/jphr.2021.2049 Raymond Jin Farragut High School, Knoxville, TN, United States. https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6580-7743 ABSTRACT Background: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has infected millions and killed tens of thousands of people. Public health measures put in place by governments are essential to the success of controlling this disease. However, governments may not feel as incentivized to implement these ... Read more","og_url":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/","og_site_name":"Journal of Public Health Research","article_modified_time":"2023-04-02T12:18:23+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/","url":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/","name":"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age - Journal of Public Health Research","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-03-27T03:09:51+00:00","dateModified":"2023-04-02T12:18:23+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/jphres\/article\/view\/2049\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The lag between daily reported Covid-19 cases and deaths and its relationship to age"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/","name":"Journal of Public Health Research","description":"The Journal of Public Health Research is an online Open Access, peer-reviewed journal in the field of public health science. The scope of the journal is to stimulate debate and spreading of knowledge in this area in order to improve public health.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#organization","name":"Journal of Public Health Research","url":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Favicon-JPHRES.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Favicon-JPHRES.png","width":150,"height":114,"caption":"Journal of Public Health Research"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.citefactor.org\/journal\/index\/5410\/journal-of-public-health-research#.ZD-hS-xBx3k","https:\/\/www.scimagojr.com\/journalsearch.php?q=21100790524&amp;amp;tip=sid&amp;amp;clean=0"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/4730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/4730\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jphres.us.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}